IUVO™ · Narrative Leading Indicator & Forecast Architecture

Real-time leading indicator.
Two channels. One auditable output.

Stata runs first — estimating five competing models, computing the ECT score, detecting the market regime, and locking all quantitative outputs. Claude receives those fixed values and interprets them. It cannot change a single number. The result is a weekly briefing that is simultaneously rigorous and readable.

How it works

The dual-channel leading indicator architecture

IUVO™ is built around a strict separation of functions. The statistical channel is deterministic and reproducible — Stata estimates expanding-window models, scores the current ECT deviation, and assigns a regime before any language model touches the data. Only then does Claude enter, operating strictly as an interpreter of locked outputs — validating, contextualizing, and translating into plain language.

Headline text flows into two parallel channels — Stata (deterministic, locked first) and Claude (interpretive, reads locked outputs) — which combine into a weekly briefing. 185 headline topic series Daily WORDSTAT scoring · textual data only · no price inputs Channel 1 · Stata Deterministic · locked first 5 competing models (expanding window) ECT z-score · price vs narrative gap Regime: NORMAL / SURPRISE / GEO 20-day cone · Jeffreys bands WoE consensus · decibans outputs locked · Claude cannot alter Channel 2 · Claude Interpretive · hybrid cognition Signal validation · internal consistency Dominant narrative identification Situation awareness · headline context Dörner audit · reasoning error check 3 cone-anchored forward scenarios Weekly briefing Signal dashboard · forecast cone · narrative analysis 93.0% directional accuracy 907 trading days backtest 23.5 Sharpe · M1 champion
93.0%
Directional hit rate · h=1
907
Trading days · expanding-window backtest
23.5
Annualised Sharpe · M1 champion
88%
S&P variance explained by PC-1 narrative
Real-time
Leading indicator · narrative leads price
185
Headline topic series · WORDSTAT
The principle

Narrative and price share a common trend

The PC-1 narrative composite and the S&P 500 level are formally co-integrated — confirmed by Engle-Granger and Johansen tests. They are the same phenomenon expressed in different units. When they diverge, the ECT z-score measures that gap and the model forecasts mean reversion. The statistical channel locks that signal. Claude interprets what is driving it.

Critically, the narrative composite is a real-time leading indicator — it captures turning points as they form in language before they fully appear in price. When fear language surges, when geopolitical topics co-activate, when the PC-1 composite begins to diverge from current price levels, the system registers the developing disequilibrium in the ECT z-score and routes the forecast accordingly. The system does not wait for price to move. It reads the narrative field that price will follow.

The same leading indicator architecture — textual data scored and structured, then interpreted by an LLM operating on locked quantitative outputs — scales to any domain where language volume and sentiment carry information about future states. Customer communications, project status reports, regulatory filings, competitive intelligence. IUVO™ is the live demonstration.

Available for license

The IUVO™ desktop product is available for licensing. The architecture — textual signal processing combined with hybrid cognition interpretation — is also available as a consulting engagement applied to your domain. Every inquiry begins with a complimentary discovery conversation.

Inquire about IUVO™ →